2009年1月10日星期六

請縛緊安全帶

港股連跌三日後今日失去咗重心,升又升唔到,跌又唔係跌好多。恆指早段都升過超過 200點㗎,收報則報 14377點,跌38點,成交則約 451億元。呢個禮拜走先升後回格局,全周跌 665點。

維京人今晚約咗朋友食飯,差唔多全部唔係喺 bank 度做都係做同金融業有關嘅行業。原來獅子銀行內部裁員冇停過,最慘係走咗一批人又唔俾你再加人。有 D 部間仍有嘢做嘅,人手少咗 workload 自然大咗,大家都嗌辛苦。

美國12月非農業職位減少 52.4萬個,比市場預期為佳。不過 11月份職位就向下修定,由原本公布嘅 53.3萬個更正為 58.4萬個,比原先公布嘅少咗好多份工。而11月份失業率則由原先公布 6.7%向上為 6.8%。

數據呢下嘢,公布咗嘅可以修定,真係唔知信佢好定唔信佢好。不過好明顯美國職位流失得好緊要。全年計,2008年嘅職位流失係自戰後最勁嘅。維京人好明顯就係戰後出生,即係話 2008年係小弟有生之年見過美國最多職位減少嘅一年。

咁多人失業,點算?呢期奧巴馬真係要叫做「噢!加碼」先啱。救市措施要不斷加碼,否則得嗰少少錢真係攪唔掂。問題係係咁出錢救市,錢又從何而來?睇嚟都係靠印銀紙呢招嘅啫。最抵死嘅係美元唔掂,其他揸美元資產嘅國家就蝕水。咁攪法,真係可能會俾美國呢招輪出衰退攪番好自身嘅經濟?

海嘯似由美國殺到香港。蘋果日報話要減薪,都比較突然。相信咁多人睇嘅蘋果咁高調話減薪,其他企業就算冇咁嘅打算都會考慮考慮,順勢而為嘛。仲唔乘乘機機咩?所以睇嚟大家呢幾個月都要開勒緊褲頭,留多個錢喺身比較穩陣。如果係做政府工嘅朋友,刺激消費要靠你哋咯。

至於買賣股票方面,恆指若跌破 13800點會繼續跌。家下個走勢,好有可能有機會又再試新低。各位請縛好安全帶。

祝各位有個愉快嘅周末!

Cheers!

9 則留言:

Betty 說...

又看淡!!!

Hana 說...

病咗吖?
快啲好番啦!

市場維京人 說...

多謝挪姐吖。
差唔多好番咯。Thanks!

CPO Trader 說...

Hi, there...... what a nice blog!

I apologize for not speaking Chinese as I have real problems to type Chinese. (hope you do not mind)

The overall markets seems very indecisive at the moment. Well, in my country (Malaysia); I had turn long on our index futures since end of Dec. However, I am still holding on with my HSI futures that I shorted since June 2008. In fact, I am quite optimistic for the year of 2009.
Like what u mentioned, 恆指若跌破 13800點會繼續跌。家下個走勢,好有可能有機會又再試新低。各位請縛好安全帶; everything seems very uncertain at the moment. I really hope everything shall be clear in the next few days.

Cheers to 2009 and wish you a happy 2009 new year!

市場維京人 說...

Wow! We have blogger from Malaysia!! CPO Trader, welcome! To me, I think 13800 for HSI is very critical, if it drops below this point, will drop further.

For the DOW, not matter how Obama's save market policy, they are all useless, or just affect a small proportion of the economy.

How about the Malaysia market? It seems that the market is relatively strong, even many places in Asia Pacific dropped last Friday, it rise. Will visit your blog to learn more la!

Cheers!

CPO Trader 說...

Yeap. The current consolidation since Nov will breakout (up/down?)sooner or later. As I am more on the long term, I am actually looking at points beyond 16500 for HSI futures to start the rally. My last short was around 22000; hence, a new long could be real good at 16500. Otherwise, I will hold on with my short and see no reasons in turning long yet. Anyway, just my very humble opinions.

Yes, similar to HK market; Malaysia market was sluggish and consolidate for quite some time. However, the only difference is Malaysia market break up since December and I turn long since then. As such, there is a possible Chinese New Year rally this year.

Don't said that, bro...... we learn from each other, the learning path in trading never ends...... Cheers!

Unknown 說...

已經縛緊安全帶了

New Jersey 其實唔係上像中咁差...
所有人都唔敢消費,個個呢一刻都係怕冇左份工...
但都見附近有房屋成交,油價大跌都令我地減輕唔少... 現在美國人都係等Obama 既救市措施黎搵定人心... 所以"噢!加碼", 係加碼得合理,加碼得應該。雖然唔會幫到我地D乜,但起碼有用心黎搵定民心!

市場維京人 說...

CPO Trader,
You are Futures expert, no need to be humble. Just leave comments on HSI if you have any new view!
:P

市場維京人 說...

不完美紳士,
不如你喺你個 blog 講多 D 美國嘅料俾我哋知啦! 你都寫得好呀!

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